Publications

Preparation

1. Preparation

   Value of accurate urban weather prediction in the day-ahead energy market

   Choi, Byeongseong, Bergés, Mario, and Pozzi, Matteo

   In preparation 2023
2. Preparation

   Uncertainty quantification of building energy use under stochastic temperature

   Choi, Byeongseong, Bergés, Mario, and Pozzi, Matteo

   In preparation 2023
3. Preparation

   Concurrent importance sampling for reliability problems with multiple limit-states

   Choi, Byeongseong, and Song, Junho

   In preparation 2023

Journal

1. Journal

   Short-term probabilistic forecasting of meso-scale near-surface urban temperature fields

   Choi, Byeongseong, Bergés, Mario, Bou-Zeid, Elie, and Pozzi, Matteo

   Environmental Modelling & Software 2021

   Abstract doi url

   This paper introduces a probabilistic approach to spatio-temporal high resolution meso-scale modeling of near-surface temperature and applies it to regions of dimension about 150∼200 km, with 1 km grid spacing and 30-min interval. Our probabilistic approach, based on linear Gaussian models and dimensionality reduction, can accurately forecast short-term temperature fields and serve as a computationally less expensive alternative to physics-based models that necessitate high-performance computing. The probabilistic models here are calibrated from simulations of a physics-based model, the Princeton Urban Canopy Model, coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-PUCM). We assess the performance of the calibrated models to forecast short-term near-surface temperature in various cases. In the numerical campaign, our models achieve 0.97–1.13 °C root mean squared error (RMSE) for 24-hours ahead forecast; generating three days of forecast takes between 20 and 170 sec on a single processor (Intel Xeon E5-2690 v4@2.60GHz). Hence, the proposed approach provides predictions at relatively high accuracy and low computational cost.

Data

1. Data

   SHADE 2021: Meso-scale 2m air temperature around New York City and Pittsburgh

   Choi, Byeongseong, Bergés, Mario, Bou-Zeid, Elie, and Pozzi, Matteo

   2021

   doi

Conference and Workshop

1. Conference

   Spatio-temporal modelling for meso-scale surface temperature

   Choi, Byeongseong, Bergés, Mario, and Pozzi, Matteo

   ICOSSAR 2021-2022,13th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability, 13-17 September 2022, Shanghai, China 2022
2. Conference

   Short-term probabilistic heat-induced risk assessment on urban scale energy system

   Choi, Byeongseong, Bergés, Mario, and Pozzi, Matteo

   Engineering Mechanics Institute Conference, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, May 31-June 3, 2022 2022
3. Conference

   Data-driven short-term prediction of meso-scale surface temperature

   Choi, Byeongseong, Pozzi, Matteo, Bergés, Mario, and Bou-Zeid, Elie

   Engineering Mechanics Institute Conference and Probabilistic Mechanics & Reliability Conference, Virtual, May 25-28, 2021 2021
4. Conference

   Probabilistic approaches for surrogate modeling with high-dimensional data to predict short-term meso-scale surface temperature

   Choi, Byeongseong, Bergés, Mario, Bou-Zeid, Elie, and Pozzi, Matteo

   American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020. Virtual, December 15, 2020 2020
5. Workshop

   Heat risk assessment using surrogate model for meso-scale surface temperature

   Choi, Byeongseong, Pozzi, Matteo, and Bergés, Mario

   Machine Learning for Engineering Modeling, Simulation, and Design Workshop at Neural Information Processing System, Virtual, December 12, 2020 2020
6. Conference

   Developing time-variant filter for meso-scale surface temperature prediction

   Choi, Byeongseong, Pozzi, Matteo, Bergés, Mario, and Bou-Zeid, Elie

   International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE) Conference 2020, Seoul (remote), November 9-10, 2020 2020
7. Conference

   A non-stationary surrogate model for meso-scale surface temperature with extracted diurnal spatial patterns

   Choi, Byeongseong, Pozzi, Matteo, Bergés, Mario, and Bou-Zeid, Elie

   American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019. San Francisco, December 10, 2019 2019
8. Conference

   Efficient earthquake loss estimation by cross-entropy-based adaptive importance sampling

   Choi, Byeongseong, Byun, Ji-Eun, and Song, Junho

   12th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, August 6-10, Vienna, Austria 2017
9. Workshop

   Novel sampling methods for seismic impact analysis of urban communities and complex infrastructure systems

   Choi, Byeongseong, and Song, Junho

   IFAT 2017 Third International Forum on Advanced Technologies, March 9-11, Hualien, Taiwan 2017
10. Conference

    Cross-entropy-based adaptive importance sampling for probabilistic seismic risk assess-ment of lifeline networks considering spatial correlation

    Choi, Byeongseong, and Song, Junho

    Urban Transitions Global Summit 2016, September 5-9, Shanghai 2016
11. Conference

    Dimension reduction techniques and efficient sampling method for regional seismic loss assessment

    Choi, Byeongseong, and Song, Junho

    Korean Society of Civil Engineers 2016 Convention, October 19-21, Jeju, Korea 2016
12. Conference

    Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of lifeline networks using cross-entropy-based adaptive importance sampling

    Choi, Byeongseong, Song, Junho, and Chi, Seokho

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management 13, October 2-7, Seoul, Korea 2016
13. Workshop

    Reliability analysis of complex infrastructure systems using cross-entropy-based adaptive importance sampling

    Song, Junho, and Choi, Byeongseong

    Workshop on Resilience of Urban Infrastructure, April 24-26, Toronto, Canada 2016
14. Conference

    Seismic risk assessment for traffic network using adaptive sampling

    Choi, Byeongseong, and Song, Junho

    2016 Conference of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea, March 18, Suwon, Korea 2016
15. Conference

    Probabilistic loss assessment of earthquakes in Korea using open-source software platforms

    Choi, Eujeong, Choi, Byeongseong, and Song, Junho

    2015 Conference of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea, March 18, Suwon, Korea 2015

Thesis

1. Thesis

   Urban temperature and electricity demand: probabilistic modeling and adaptive decision-making

   Choi, Byeongseong

   Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University 2023
2. Thesis

   Efficient simulation-based approaches for community-level probabilistic seismic risk assessment

   Choi, Byeongseong

   Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, Seoul National University 2017

   url